Harley Ain't the Only One: Overall Bike Sales Down Last Year
I've never cared much for sales figures or spreadsheets, but one recent statistic deserves attention: the fact that 2007 was the first time motorcycle sales haven't grown in 14 years.
According to a recent LA Times story, especially hard-hit are small-displacement dirtbikes and, as previously reported, Harley-Davidson. According to the Times article, the U.S. Department of Commerce estimates a 2.2% sales drop, and some manufacturers are estimating a slide of up to 10%.
Bloomberg has reported that Yamaha is experiencing its first profit drop in eight years (taking its biggest stock hit in 26 years), and Honda reports a third-quarter dip of 14.4%. While a few bright spots include Ducati, KTM, Victory, and overall scooter sales, the bleaker bigger picture begs the question: how will this affect the future of motorcycling?
I'm guessing the end of a 14 year growth streak doesn't concern dyed-in-the-wool enthusiasts much, since they're less trend-sensitive than mainstream consumers. As Cycle World publisher Larry Little is quoted in the Times article, "Once you throw a leg over a bike, it's something you don't want to miss. In fact, when you have to put up with political debates and wonder what the economy's going to do, it's something you need more."
And while industry market research groups like Freedonia are predicting a rosier long-term outlook due to emerging markets such as Asia and South America, share your thoughts on your corner of the world, and where you see the motorcycle business going.
Photo © Paul Gilham / Staff / Getty Images Sport
Comments
Hopefully the current U.S. recession is just like the rest; by the time the economists figure out that there was a recession we’re into full recovery.
Bikes will recover too, however, I predict the cruiser market will never again reach the peaks of the last ten years.
With today’s economy in turmoil and at a minimum, “uncertain, bleak, or downright scary,” each day my Harley-Davidson Road King Classic becomes more and more of a precious commodity and appreciated item more than any other material possession I own.
Why? Once I’m on the 760 pound, 5 speed beast riding up the California coastline or hitting the beautiful Santa Monica mountains, I somehow forget we are living in strange times! I hope that others will find the time to take a moment out of their busy lives; learn a new skill…how to ride a motorcycle (Harley has Rider’s Edge Riders Training Courses); treat themselves to “real living” (the feeling you get once you purchase a motorcycle); and experience the same things I and millions of others do every weekend or a few times a week and that is: freedom, sanity, exhilaration, spiritual connection and an emotional state that relives you of your and the world’s problems if only for a moment.
I am very, very hopeful that motorcycle sales will increase once people realize the beauty, fun and positive state-of-mind motorcycling brings to your life. Long live cruisers and the people who enjoy them!
There was a time whan a relatively high % of people rode a bike because it was cheaper to buy, cheaper to fuel and cheaper to insure….such is no longer the case.
The Motorcycle industry now relies on what has become known s ‘disposable income’. God willing I might find out what that is one day..when I have enough time left to enjoy it…so far, no sign of it. Despite that trend, this industry is cyclic – just like cars. It WILL bounce back.
The author needs to be more careful about using generalities and review his sources more closely.
Honda motorcycle sales have actually been flat worldwide for the last 3 years. http://world.honda.com/investors/highlight/
Only about 2% of the registered vehicles on the road are motorcycles, and that has not changed significantly in 15 years.
Instead of the increasing fuel prices driving more people to get a generally more fuel efficient two wheeler, it is pulling away their disposable income to fueling the four wheelers.
I see more people getting on to bikes than I ever have. Maybe it’s because I am 40 and so are many of the guys around me. But, I don’t think a small slump is anything to worry about for the long term. Two of my local motorcycle shops have gone out of business in the last month; which may be a reflection of the economy or their poor management. I am preparing to buy a new Honda this month myself to do my part.
Hello BC,
Thanks for your comment.
The point of my blog post was to take a specific look at last year’s downturn, rather than go into an in depth discussion of sales trends over the past several years; last year marks a reversal of a trend that has been on the upswing for 14 straight years. Though Honda’s sales may have been flat for three years, the market as a whole was growing. Because I’ve posted several blogs regarding Harley’s dip in sales last year (and subsequent slide in stock value,) I felt it was important to contextualize it with the rest of the market– especially since, based on the comments for my Harley post, several people appeared to take delight in the news. Hence, the title “Harley Ain’t the Only One: Overall Bike Sales Down Last Year.”
Motorcycling has become far more socially acceptable and popular in recent years, and I think it’s a refreshing change to the days when bikers were automatically considered outlaws. 2007’s dip reflects, in my opinion, broader economic concerns. As I quoted Ty van Hooydonk of Discover Today’s Motorcycling in a previous post, “…with the subprime mortgage crisis, what isn’t down these days?”
I believe everything is cyclical and motorcycling will rebound; it’s too addictive not to!
Basem
Baby boomers have driven the market for the last 15 years. Especially in the big bike segment. They have all been trying to relive their youth. Well, now that every baby boomer who wanted one has one its time to move on to something else. Used Harleys will become a dime a dozen in the coming years as boomers begin to get rid of them.
I would suspect that the Japanese manufacturers are getting antsy right about now…. but rather than continuing to flood the market as they did in the early 80’s, I believe they will reduce production to more closely match demand.
Even in a ‘down’ year, you don’t see very many brand new 2,3,4,5 or 6 model year old bikes at dealerships.
I’d say that Yamaha has a good model of model introduction in the FJR. They’ve got their bet ‘hedged’.
Most likely others will begin to follow this model.
It would be nice if the economic slowdown would prompt manufacturers to lower prices, or prompt dealerships to sell bikes closer to MSRP. Especially here in Central Mass., the main dealership is notable for its markups. Maybe that will change, I hope.
Some of H-D decline could be related in there change of financing program, they to were a contributing factor with the sub-prime failure with there fast and easy loans, a friend works at H-D dealer and states that people that got loans a year ago would not get a loan under the revised guidelines. ( same as home morgages today). People got loans for amounts that where not justified by there incomes, then there’s the tricks within some loans that has muddyed today’s waters. Maybe what m/c sales needs is some orginal designs and styles, take some of these engineering concepts and makethem ridable, what about a stylish fairing instead of only having the barn door Goldwing or the nostaligic handbar mount H-D, how about something light weight made from ABS, airodynamic, and storage space. In the ’80’s had a Voyeger fairing that was excellant, had the edges of the windshield moved out of the way when turning the handlebars,great wind/rain protection, weighed 15 lbs, large pockets on each side up to the nose, and unique styling, picked up a lot of young ladies with that bike.
I need something past the nostalgia age before butting down the bucks, the Rune and Yamaha where interesting but no acssorieus and I ain’t a stock kind of guy.
The whole problem is that the manufacturers have all lost focus of what a motorcycle is. It used to be low cost transportation. Now it is racing bikes adapted for street being ridden by wanna be racers in a dangerous environment, or cruiser bikes that do not handle or have enough fuel capacity to go much more than an electric vehicle. Baggers are too heavy and cumbersome to use daily. Touring bikes are too expensive and too big to be practical for basic transportation.
I remember my 1971 Yamaha XS650 in 1975 and I rode it almost every day of the year. I rode my 1986 Kawasaki Voyager XII the same way for 6 years. I did not let a little rain and even snow once, stop me from riding to work on a daily basis. I made some long vacation trips on it with my wife over that time. Now I ride a 2006 Kawasaki Concours daily and on trips, two of which were to a school for work in OK City, OK.
Even automobile manufacturers know that for every special car, e.g., Corvette or Viper, they have to sell a lot of basic transportation vehicles, e.g., Aveos or Cobalts.
Kawasaki sells more Ninja 250s than any ZX14s.
The magazines contribute to the problem from glamorizing the big bikes and exotic racing bikes. I guess if I was a writer for a magazine, I would want to ride those bikes as well, but there has to be some sacrifice for real motorcycles.
Anyone ever see movies of Japan or Europe? A lot of motorcycles in traffic.
That’s my two cents worth.
I’m glad I bought my 2008 Harley Davidson Nightster last year. I got a great deal on it, it’s a sportster so it’s light and fun to ride, and gets decent fuel economy (43 mpg real world). And it looks fnin cool!
I see now that Harley is having trouble selling the larger bikes. I feel I made the right purchase.